ClaimCost — Multi-Year Warranty Assessment (1–4 years)

Per-model projection of extending warranty from 12 to 24, 36 and 48 months, based on 26.684 approved claims and 13.798 delivered machines.

Data Upload →Presentation →Methodology →
Fleet (filter)
13.253
8.885 with ≥24m
Cost / machine — Year 1
R$ 5.336
19.235 claims
Cost / machine — Year 2 (additional)
R$ 2.497
5.252 claims
Ratio Y2/Y1
46,8%
Relative failure frequency · database 45,7% → β = 0.543
Ratio Y2/Y1 = 45,7% — how it is measured and projected

The ratio is no longer a fixed assumption (previously 23.8%). It is computed directly from the warranty database: total cost of claims in months 13–24 per machine exposed ≥24 months, divided by the cost of months 0–12 per machine exposed ≥12 months — currently 45,7%.

r21 = Cost(Y2)/machine ÷ Cost(Y1)/machine = 45,7%
H(t) = (t/η)^β   →   ΔH(year k) ∝ k^β − (k−1)^β
β = log₂(1 + r21) = 0.5433
Y3 = Y2 × (3^β − 2^β)/(2^β − 1) = Y2 × 0.785
Y4 = Y3 × (4^β − 3^β)/(3^β − 2^β) = Y3 × 0.856

Bathtub reading: β = 0.543 < 1 means the fleet is still in the decreasing-hazard (early-life) branch, so each extra warranty year adds cost at a slower rate than a constant-ratio assumption. Y3 = 78,5% of Y2 and Y4 = 85,6% of Y3.

Parameters
Calculation basis:

Fixed windows from technical delivery: Y1 = 0–12, Y2 = 13–24, Y3 = 25–36, Y4 = 37–48 months (Y3/Y4 projected with the Weibull bathtub curve fitted on the observed Y2/Y1 ratio of 45,7%).

Top 12 models — Cost per machine (Years 1 to 4) — time basis
Warranty extension 12 → 24 months, per model — 2 vs 3/4 years

Base: 26.684 approved claims and 13.798 delivered machines. Years 3 and 4 come from the Weibull bathtub curve (β = 0.543) fitted on the database ratio Y2/Y1 = 45,7%.

ModelFleetExp. ≥24mClaims Y2Ext. 12→24 / machExt. 24→36 / machExt. 36→48 / machTotal 2 yr (fleet)Total 3 yr (fleet)Total 4 yr (fleet)Δ 3 yr vs 2 yrΔ 4 yr vs 2 yr
WA2002.3931.747957R$ 2.451R$ 1.925R$ 1.647R$ 5.864.405R$ 10.469.872R$ 14.410.543+R$ 4.605.467+R$ 8.546.137
PC2002.5392.1061.073R$ 1.851R$ 1.454R$ 1.244R$ 4.699.486R$ 8.390.112R$ 11.547.998+R$ 3.690.626+R$ 6.848.512
PC1301.095714714R$ 3.845R$ 3.020R$ 2.584R$ 4.210.374R$ 7.516.887R$ 10.346.107+R$ 3.306.514+R$ 6.135.734
D511.170765572R$ 3.362R$ 2.640R$ 2.259R$ 3.933.833R$ 7.023.171R$ 9.666.566+R$ 3.089.339+R$ 5.732.733
D611.077643435R$ 2.568R$ 2.016R$ 1.725R$ 2.765.391R$ 4.937.124R$ 6.795.368+R$ 2.171.732+R$ 4.029.976
PC160793605482R$ 3.195R$ 2.509R$ 2.147R$ 2.533.928R$ 4.523.887R$ 6.226.596+R$ 1.989.958+R$ 3.692.668
PC350646425157R$ 2.628R$ 2.064R$ 1.766R$ 1.697.985R$ 3.031.456R$ 4.172.441+R$ 1.333.471+R$ 2.474.456
PC2101.843807214R$ 900R$ 707R$ 605R$ 1.658.626R$ 2.961.188R$ 4.075.725+R$ 1.302.561+R$ 2.417.099
GD655209119204R$ 7.292R$ 5.727R$ 4.900R$ 1.524.045R$ 2.720.916R$ 3.745.019+R$ 1.196.871+R$ 2.220.975
WA320599421180R$ 2.187R$ 1.717R$ 1.469R$ 1.309.743R$ 2.338.318R$ 3.218.419+R$ 1.028.575+R$ 1.908.676
D155612416R$ 12.229R$ 9.604R$ 8.217R$ 745.964R$ 1.331.789R$ 1.833.050+R$ 585.825+R$ 1.087.086
PC5001193816R$ 6.037R$ 4.741R$ 4.056R$ 718.363R$ 1.282.511R$ 1.765.225+R$ 564.148+R$ 1.046.862
PC240393294112R$ 1.658R$ 1.302R$ 1.114R$ 651.743R$ 1.163.574R$ 1.601.522+R$ 511.831+R$ 949.779
GD535876354R$ 4.670R$ 3.668R$ 3.138R$ 406.302R$ 725.382R$ 998.402+R$ 319.079+R$ 592.100
WA47042824R$ 5.232R$ 4.109R$ 3.515R$ 219.727R$ 392.285R$ 539.933+R$ 172.557+R$ 320.206
GD555918121R$ 1.242R$ 976R$ 835R$ 113.057R$ 201.844R$ 277.815+R$ 88.787+R$ 164.758
WA380962521R$ 897R$ 705R$ 603R$ 86.144R$ 153.795R$ 211.680+R$ 67.651+R$ 125.536
TOTAL13.2538.8855.252R$ 2.500R$ 1.964R$ 1.680R$ 33.139.117R$ 59.164.110R$ 81.432.411+R$ 26.024.993+R$ 48.293.293
Warranty extension by machine type — 2 vs 3/4 years

Same data and math as the per-model table, grouped as WA = wheel loaders, D = dozers, PC = excavators, GD = motor graders.

WA — Wheel loaders43.1302.2011.182R$ 2.390R$ 1.877R$ 1.606R$ 7.480.020R$ 13.354.270R$ 18.380.575+R$ 5.874.250+R$ 5.026.306
D — Dozers32.3081.4321.023R$ 3.226R$ 2.533R$ 2.168R$ 7.445.188R$ 13.292.084R$ 18.294.983+R$ 5.846.896+R$ 5.002.900
PC — Excavators77.4284.9892.768R$ 2.177R$ 1.710R$ 1.463R$ 16.170.505R$ 28.869.615R$ 39.735.615+R$ 12.699.109+R$ 10.866.001
GD — Motor graders3387263279R$ 5.280R$ 4.147R$ 3.548R$ 2.043.404R$ 3.648.142R$ 5.021.236+R$ 1.604.737+R$ 1.373.095
TOTAL1713.2538.8855.252R$ 2.500R$ 1.964R$ 1.680R$ 33.139.117R$ 59.164.110R$ 81.432.411+R$ 26.024.993+R$ 22.268.301
Column dictionary
Click any column header to see its explanation, formula and how to interpret the value here.

Δ Cost (Y2–Y4) = total extension cost per machine from month 13 to 48 (Y2 observed; Y3 = Y2 × 0.785 and Y4 = Y3 × 0.856, from the Weibull bathtub curve with β = log₂(1 + 45,7%) = 0.543). Suggested premium = Δ × (1 + premium + risk). Models aggregated by prefix (e.g., D51EX-22 → D51EX).